Case studySolar · Bay Area · CallTools

88 appointments, and a file ranked on every one of them

A California solar call center dialed two 25,000-record Bay Area files and booked 88 appointments in 15 days. We read every dial back into the next file: ranked on what booked, the top 40% of records held 23 of 25 bookings.

Who
A California solar call center
Sells
Solar appointments for an installer, by phone
Market
San Francisco Bay Area
Team
11 agents, in-house
Dialer
CallTools predictive
Volume
~31,000 dials per weekday
Illustration: aerial view of a Bay Area suburb of single-story ranch homes at golden hour, hills behind.

The result

Appointments per 1,000 records
Before1.0the file as delivered, dialed evenly
After2.3the top 40% of the same file, ranked on what booked
23 of 25 bookings kept on 40% of the records
Appointments per 100 connects
Before0.48first dial
After1.18third dial
A record is not spent after one dial
Wrong or dead numbers
Before10%the line a call-center scorecard calls strong
After3.45%of 2,205 agent-tagged calls
2.89× fewer

Two files, fifteen days, 88 appointments

The floor took the first 25,000-record file on August 31 and the second on September 8. Every call on both went through their dialer and back to us through its API, so this is their log, not our count: 88 appointments, 49 on the first file and 39 on the second, with 14 of them coming in as callbacks from homeowners in the file.

04812Mon Aug 31: 2 appointments · 7,449 dials231MTue Sep 1: 6 appointments · 25,378 dials61TWed Sep 2: 9 appointments · 32,928 dials92WThu Sep 3: 9 appointments · 23,260 dials93TFri Sep 4: 9 appointments · 18,096 dials94FSat Sep 5: 1 appointment · 2,895 dials15SSun Sep 6: 0 appointments · 0 dials6SMon Sep 7: 6 appointments · 13,527 dials67MTue Sep 8: 11 appointments · 30,290 dials118TWed Sep 9: 12 appointments · 28,830 dials129WThu Sep 10: 4 appointments · 15,759 dials410TFri Sep 11: 9 appointments · 16,330 dials911FSat Sep 12: 2 appointments · 10,470 dials212SSun Sep 13: 0 appointments · 0 dials13SMon Sep 14: 7 appointments · 23,868 dials714MTue Sep 15 (to noon): 1 appointment · 539 dials115T

A booked call ran 6½ minutes at the median, against 19 seconds for the typical connect. The last dialing hour, 6 to 7 pm, booked more appointments than any other.

What their agents tagged

Every call an agent finished got a disposition. These are the three that grade a file, on the first two days of the first file.

3.45%wrong or dead numbers2,205 agent-tagged calls
1.09%already had solarno-solar file
1.68%reached a renterowner-occupied file

The third dial books more than the first

Pickup falls with every pass, as it does on any file. Appointments do not. Per live connect, the third dial booked 2.4 times what the first one did, and the fifth and sixth kept booking. A record is not spent after one dial, so the right move is to work a file three times before asking for the next one.

Connect rate per dial

Live person handed to an agent · falls each pass

Appointments per 100 connects

Both files pooled, outbound · rises each pass

What booked

With 88 appointments joined back to the record behind each one, five traits separated the homes that booked from the ones that did not, each adjusted for the others. Two of them, phone activity and time in the home, we had never ranked a file on before.

Pool homes were the surprise. They pick up at a normal rate and almost never book: over the first three passes, one appointment in roughly 18,700 dials. They are also one of the strongest predictors of who installs solar, which is what the first file was built on. Who installs and who books a cold call are different lists.

The file, ranked

To check the traits were real and not a story told after the fact, we scored the second file with weights learned on the first file only. Its top fifth booked 2.8 per 1,000 records. The bottom three fifths, together, booked 2 of 25. The third file shipped on September 15 ranked this way.

23 of 25 bookings in the top 40% of a ranked file, on 24,968 records, 25 bookings. Weights from the first file only; the five traits were chosen looking at both.

Why the second file felt better

The floor said the second file was much better. At the same dialing depth it was level: 20 appointments against the first file’s 21 after three passes over the same number of records. What changed was the conversations. Scheduled callbacks nearly doubled, from 1.2 to 2.2 per 100 tagged calls, and “doesn’t qualify” fell from 4.0 to 2.7. But only 3.4% of the numbers that asked for a callback ever booked. Warmer calls feel like a better list. They are not the same thing, so we grade on appointments set.

What to take to your own floor

  1. Work every record three times. Connects fall with each pass; bookings per connect rise. Replace the file after the third dial, not the first.

  2. Rank on phone activity and time in the home. A mobile with carrier activity in 5 of the last 12 months and an owner in year zero to five each roughly triple bookings per record. Skip pool homes.

  3. Grade the file on appointments set. Callbacks and friendlier conversations are sentiment. Fewer than 1 in 25 callbacks became a booking.

  4. Send the export. Every finding above came from the dialer’s own log joined to the delivered file. That is how the next file gets ranked.

How this was measured
  • CallTools account export through the API, every call from August 31 to noon on September 15, 2026 (383,927 rows), joined by phone number to the two delivered files. Appointments are calls tagged “Appointment Set”; inbound callbacks count when the caller is in a delivered file.
  • Attempt number counts outbound dials to a number from its delivery day. Connect rate is the dialer’s own “answered, agent connect” system disposition over outbound dials.
  • Trait multiples: joint Poisson model of appointments per record on all 88 bookings, every trait adjusted for the others. The ranked test scores the second file with weights fitted on the first file alone. Eighty-eight events is a small sample: the ordering held in both directions, the exact multiples are loose.
  • Wrong-number, already-solar and renter rates: 2,205 agent-tagged calls on the first file, September 1–2, 2026, as published on the benchmarks page.
  • Published anonymized. The floor’s name, quotes, agent names and volumes appear only with its written approval.

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